Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.



Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. In H. R. Arkes & K. R. Hammond (Eds.), Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader (pp. 38–55). Cambridge University Press. (This chapter originally appeared in "Science," 1974, 185, 1124-1131)


this article describes three heuristics that are employed to assess probabilities and to predict values biases to which these heuristics lead are enumerated, and the applied and theoretical implications of these observations are discussed representativeness / insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes / misconceptions of chance / insensitivity to predictability / misconceptions of regression availability / biases due to the retrievability of instances / biases due to the effectiveness of a search set / illusory correlation adjustment and anchoring / biases in the evaluation of conjunctive and disjunctive events / anchoring in the assessment of subjective probability distributions (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)